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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd