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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.