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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still